Календарь время.

A word to the readers

War and peace are relative phenomena and no power in the world has ever been able to absolutely maintain and ensure them. Today, peace is looked upon more than anything else as ensuring public welfare, realization of people’s wishes from governments, developing economic infrastructures and political participation rather than a mere use of hardware capabilities or modern military establishments. Peace and security, despite having common roots, have varying connotations.

War alone does not hamper peace because in areas where there is no war, people do not enjoy security and do not feel secure. Corruption in its various features (administrative/fiscal and immorality) is a silent war against humanity, which destroys mental peace of a society; and where crimes add fuel to war, but is not still the only factor for insecurity.

What makes violence epidemic and wars chronic is nothing than ethnicization of military networks, militarization of political processes of the country, besides showering huge amount of money that not only distorted incentives in the society but created a dynamic in which neither side of conflict had interest to end the conflict.

Therefore, where our success in war and peace depends on our today’s strategy and is indebted to our yesterday’s investment; our politicians should not put their fingers on trigger against each other, but should hoist the olive branch and shouldn’t change sweetness of our success in the fields of war into political bargaining and should not change them into bitterness for the people.

Our national independence has been the result of the military resistance of our masses, which has been lost as the result of lack of political gumption. Despite the fact that our people have paid handsomely to achieve political independence, but regrettably the state of independence has been reduced to a national and political aspiration just like xenophobia in Afghanistan did not hinder foreigners from intervention, but has only changed the way for opportunistic elements and even has facilitated it.

In view of the foregoing, and as witnessed by the history, Afghanistan was not a camp for foreign power but was a crossroad. The Russian invasion of Afghanistan showed that they were focusing on the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. For example, the main objective of the heavy and bloody presence of America has been to keep its strategic rivals in a defensive position.

Considering the secured political atmosphere of the country and in view of security-political parameters, Afghanistan Center for Military Research and Monitoring makes the following four scenarios possible with varying degrees for the country:

By signing the Bilateral Security Agreement BSA with the United States of America, the same situation will continue in Afghanistan. In this case, the war will become an Afghan war and eventually the tired warring parties facing a stalemate will agree to an understanding under US Administration. (Continuation of the status quo, i.e., the state of war and stability).
2. (Re-commencement of civil war with foreign management).

3. (Disintegration of government and establishment of a feudal or coalitional system).

4. Establishment of an interim administration with participation of the presidential candidates under the aegis of the United Nations.

Under such circumstances, Afghanistan will be able to either put an end to internal, regional and international rivalries and to become hopeful for peace and progress, or the power will eventually become divided through continuation of rivalries and political chaos.

Therefore, those who sympathize with the people and country, did not use their remainder strategic cards reasonably, and did not embark upon mobilization of national capacities and human qualities, and did not consider the red line between confidence and the people, it is most likely that on the national chessboard the entire players will fall one after another and our nascent army will disintegrate before the foreseen timetable. What should be done at this stage is not a basic question, rather, how, when and which side to work with is the main question worth discussing.
National and security interests of Afghanistan depend on a number of the following internal and external ideas:
Security Agreement:
Olive and weapons: During last twelve years, Afghanistan neither benefited from the olive branch and nor from weapons. The West had come with its armaments to exterminate its enemies and that of the people of Afghanistan.
After 11 September, the Western powers thought that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda were the same. They had divided their weapons and bullets to kill these two, but it was only Afghanistan that did not make use of their weaponry, and on certain occasions Afghanistan used their weapons against herself.

The olive branch changed into a dagger, and the armaments which ought to have been used against enemies of the people of Afghanistan, were rendered impotent. We ought to have the olive branch and weapons, but besides that we ought to try our utmost to give priority to safeguarding our national interests and our religious values.

Peace resulting from expedient deals is in fact tantamount to war in the guise of peace. The pigeon of peace has always been shot with the arrow of distrust, where peace had always been ensured under the leadership of intrepid and sagacious leaders.

From the viewpoint of CMRM, based on militarization of political environment and other security parameters, Afghanistan can theoretically be achieved from three-prong trajectory:
A national compromise between the state and its ideological armed insurgents;
Continued militarily presence of America within the framework of security agreement;
Replacement of America and NATO by our neighbors and the region.

But what is it that guarantees all these wishes and removes anxieties; but a powerful political will, a national program, financial facilities, regional cooperation and professional armed forces? These two interrelated variants, which are absolutely connected through confidence, cooperation and people’s commitment, have two-fold and mutual reaction.

Administration of ‘the War and Peace’ Magazine wholeheartedly welcomes academic personalities and is grateful for cooperation of generals of the armed forces and members of the national assembly and is pleased to remind that given the voluminous magnitude of their materials, the Magazine will publish them on their turn given the prevailing political and security situation of the country, and beg their patience on this account.